Aging Demographics
The Core Argument
Everyone knows the population is aging. What most people miss is how far the implications extend beyond healthcare.
An aging population doesn't just need more doctors—it needs different housing, different financial products, different consumer goods, different labor arrangements. And crucially, it means fewer workers supporting more retirees.
Key Claim: Healthcare will grow from 18% to 25% of GDP by 2035. This isn't a prediction—it's arithmetic.
Beyond Healthcare
The obvious play is healthcare stocks. But the second and third-order effects are where the alpha lives:
Labor markets — Every industry competes for a shrinking pool of working-age adults. Wages rise. Automation accelerates. Immigration policy becomes economic policy.
Housing — The 55+ demographic wants different housing than they have. Downsizing, accessibility, community amenities. The housing stock doesn't match the demand.
Financial services — Decumulation is harder than accumulation. Managing money in retirement requires different products than saving for retirement.
Consumer goods — Products designed for 30-year-olds don't work for 70-year-olds. Ergonomics, packaging, interfaces all need rethinking.
The Labor Constraint
This is where demographics intersects most directly with my other theses:
- Inflation — Labor scarcity is inherently inflationary
- AI & Knowledge Work — Automation isn't optional when workers aren't available
- Reshoring — Manufacturing needs workers. Where do they come from?
Key Claim: Labor scarcity is the defining economic constraint of the 2020s.
What I'm Watching
1. Labor force participation — Are 60+ workers staying in the workforce longer?
2. Immigration policy — Does political reality allow the immigration the economy needs?
3. Productivity data — Can AI and automation offset the demographic headwind?
Longevity as an Asset Class
The emerging "longevity economy" is creating new investment categories:
- Healthspan extension — Not just living longer, but living better longer
- Age-tech — Technology designed for older users
- Senior living evolution — From nursing homes to active adult communities
- Longevity biotech — GLP-1s are just the beginning